Wednesday, January 20, 2010


In the light of the game changing election of Scott Brown to fill Ted Kennedy's vacant Senate seat in Massachusetts, I think it is time to lay down some political predictions, in order of my certainty.

#1 It is a safe bet that Scott Brown (R-MA) will be running for president in 2012, and right now I would even give him the odds for the nomination. Check out his killer ad. This is George Bush in 2000 stuff. He is Mitt Romney without all the Mitt Romney. But we'll see if Republicans can contort around his support for Massachusetts "commie" healthcare, or his nude Cosmo photo shoot! (Link Possibly NSFW) I am betting they can.

#2 Heathcare reform is deeply damaged, and just a few feet from the finish line. The only question now is if it can survive. Since Democrats are too meek to confront the insane abuse of the filibuster, this Village Voice headline gets it right on, "Scott Brown Wins Mass. Race, Giving GOP 41-59 Majority in the Senate." Democrats are going to wait patiently for Brown to come to Washington. Then they are going to try and get "bi-partisan support" for something, which will of course fail, and then who knows what will happen. If history is a guide, no more reform attempts until after 2020 at least.

#3 Obama will become far more aggressive. He has been sounding more like he was during the campaign in the past few weeks. Perhaps a loss will wake him up to start moving things faster. What has he got to loose?

#4 Obama will become far weaker and turn over the white house keys to Olympia Snowe, causing him to loose to Scott Brown as bad as Martha Coakley did. The alternate to #3. I hope not.

In other words, the glass is half empty and I think it has sprung a leak...

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