Tuesday, October 16, 2007

The Republican Field

This is my first shot at analyzing the upcoming 2008 elections and doing some ball gazing as to what will happen when nomination time rolls around. First up is the Republican field that is frankly far more interesting than the Democratic because it is muddy with no clear leader. Any one can take this horse race! Some of my conclusions run at odds with current polling but thats the fun right?

Rudy Giuliani - His cronyism and corruption is unmatched, and he believes we are in WW4 with "Isalmo-fascism." I also think 9/11 might have driven him insane. I still give him best odds for the nomination. See this TalkingPointsMemo clip (TPM has been all over his campaign) about him to get a good idea about his campaign. Short version: his advisers are all the ones too crazy and to pro-war to be involved with the current administration.

Mitt Romney - The #2 odds for getting the nomination but the No. 1 phoney candidate. Does anything he say mean anything? Or is it just supposed to sound good and tough. Don't answer that, just watch his latest ad:

Fred Thompson - An ignorant, poor campaigner. He will burn out slowly. The press already hates him and he had to live up to the title of "Reagan II" which is near impossible. He does have some powerful help from the Cheney camp on his team though.

John McCain - Washed up, out of cash, and very confused. Look for him to drop out after early primary losses. Word on the street says he almost did in July.

Ron Paul - Thinks America was better off in 1908 than 2008. Honest old-school Libertarian/States rights candidate. People on the internet are in love with him in large part due to his anti-war/anti-government stance. I think he will do much better than people give him credit for, but he will undoubtedly hit the wall when it counts.

Mike Huckabee
- I can't get a read on Huckabee. He fills out the middle of the field as the most non-notable candidate. A pro-war, anti-abortion, anti-gay, intelligent design, ex-Govoner of Arkansas. Pea soup of southern Republicanism. Look for him to be a wild-card for the nomination.

Sam Brownback (Christian Right), Duncan Hunter (um..), and Tom Tancredo (anti-immigration) Are all way back and have not gotten much attention, and I think it will stay that way.

So thats my take for now. Any thoughts?

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