Sunday, September 28, 2008

From the Department of Hopeful Predictions

In my wildest predictions for election day, the map on the left here is what I would guess. That comes out to 338 for Obama and 200 for McCain. But, I have always assumed that Florida and Virginia didn't have a chance, and Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Colorado would be the deciders.

But, for the first time over at Interade they are betting on a map not unlike this one, and the venerable FiveThirtyEight does have this map! And sure things will probably fade back down, but the question is when? And why? McCain lost his chance at the first debate, his campaign is terrified of their own VP candidate, and their post-debate strategy will be to say,
"One is that Obama is not ready to be commander in chief and that, in a time of two wars, "his policies will make the world more dangerous and America less secure." Second, he said, McCain will argue that, in a time of economic crisis, Obama will raise taxes and spending and "will make our economy worse."
If things don't change and change soon for McCain, he is looking at certain defeat.

EDIT: Checking back on FiveThirtyEight with todays poll numbers added in is actually shocking. In his thousands of statistically possible election scenarios he runs every day, McCain only won 19.5% of them. Two and a half weeks ago, he was winning about 55% of the time. And as Nate Silver points out, this is not August where being behind in the polls is something to be worked at. This is October politics, and Obama is enjoying the higest level of support that he ever had.

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