Sunday, September 28, 2008

From the Department of Hopeful Predictions

In my wildest predictions for election day, the map on the left here is what I would guess. That comes out to 338 for Obama and 200 for McCain. But, I have always assumed that Florida and Virginia didn't have a chance, and Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Colorado would be the deciders.

But, for the first time over at Interade they are betting on a map not unlike this one, and the venerable FiveThirtyEight does have this map! And sure things will probably fade back down, but the question is when? And why? McCain lost his chance at the first debate, his campaign is terrified of their own VP candidate, and their post-debate strategy will be to say,
"One is that Obama is not ready to be commander in chief and that, in a time of two wars, "his policies will make the world more dangerous and America less secure." Second, he said, McCain will argue that, in a time of economic crisis, Obama will raise taxes and spending and "will make our economy worse."
If things don't change and change soon for McCain, he is looking at certain defeat.

EDIT: Checking back on FiveThirtyEight with todays poll numbers added in is actually shocking. In his thousands of statistically possible election scenarios he runs every day, McCain only won 19.5% of them. Two and a half weeks ago, he was winning about 55% of the time. And as Nate Silver points out, this is not August where being behind in the polls is something to be worked at. This is October politics, and Obama is enjoying the higest level of support that he ever had.

1 comment:

Daniel Steve said...

Hello Everyone I am Daniel Steve from Texas, USA. I will like to share the goodness of God in my life after so many months of trying to get a loan on the internet and was been scammed so i became restless and desperate in getting a loan from a legit lender online. But as God would have it, i saw a comment from a friend called William Ken and he talked about this legit loan company where he got his loan fast and easy without any stress so he introduced me to a man called Mr Mason Diego who controls a firm called Diego Loan Company, So i applied for a loan sum of ($170,000.00USD) with low interest rate of 2%, so the loan was approved and deposited into my bank account in less than 48hrs, that was how i was able to get back on my feet to keep my broken business running and also to pay off my bills so i am advising everyone of you who is interested in getting a loan without collateral, no credit check, no co signer with just 2% interest rate and better repayment plans/ schedule, to please contact Mr Mason Diego. You can contact him through his email: diegoloancompany@yahoo.com