Friday, September 26, 2008

Debate Night

Well now that the debate is canceled
Now that the debate is under question
Now that the debate is back on, what can we expect? Well following up on McCain's awful last week, he has managed to top it off with an even worse week. Really really bad. The Palin pick gamble has come to pay out like I thought, and then some. Her interview with Katie Couric was so bad that even some of her most staunch conservative defenders are starting to call for her to "bow out". He "suspends" his campaign in another gamble, hoping to get another pay off. But instead, he lies to Leterman and becomes a punch line. He flew into Washington expecting to be the hero only to land in the middle of a deal gone bad - and he doesn't know what to do. People point out he still has ads on TV, is still raising money, and is still paying people to attack Obama during his suspension stunt. Meanwhile, Obama has been calm in all this, with the only criticism leveled at him is that he might be "too cool" in the face of all this. I bet he wishes all criticism could sound so sweet.

So McCain, whos bet has gone bust, now has to slink back to Mississippi not having prepared for a debate tonight that should get mind-blowing ratings, and with him down a massive 4 points in national polling averages. This time 4 years ago, George Bush was up 6 points, and after the first debate went disastrously, his lead dropped 4 points to 2%. He went on to win by 2.4% Realistically there is not much that will change the outcome of the election after the debates. We are in a time of hardening public opinion, so baring some new dramatic event that McCain can create, or happens in his favor, here is what tonight could mean for the election:
  • McCain is done if he does poorly tonight. Over. Finished. KO.
  • McCain will lose the election if tonight is a tie. Everything is against him right now.
  • McCain has a chance if he wins tonight, but he will have something more to push back against and talk about.
  • McCain can win the election if Obama does awfully, and McCain does suburb. If he can pull off a dramatic and clear win, it will make people second guess everything they have seen in the past 2 weeks. 'McCain was right all along! Obama was useless!'
I say the odds are more for a tie, but really anything could happen. McCain is down, and when he is down he swings hard so look for him to be hot tonight. It should be exciting!

For a little comic relief, here is a remembrance of the 2004 debates from the Daily Show, and the silly game of spinning the "winner" of the debate.

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