Wednesday, June 18, 2008

538

My new favorite political junky is sports statistician turned polling analyst Nate Silver over at FiveThirtyEight.com - named for the 538 electoral votes up for grabs in November. He was a rising star during the primary for his detailed analysis and prediction based on complicated formulas of past voting history, past polling accuracy, demographics, and tons of other factors. So he doesn't just do a poll-of-polls to get his numbers, he runs them through scenarios to get a spread of predictions.
So his predictions carry a lot of weight, and his current electoral map/prediction just about matches my most optimistic/wild predictions for Obama in November. Thanks to a bunch of polls out today, Obama is now ahead in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. McCain absolutely must win one of those states to have any chance. It is still early and candidates have come back from further, but the longer McCain spends in this dismal territory the harder it is to make his case.

And a side note, stories like this are why I love Mike Huckabee:
Huckabee suggested questions about whether he might join McCain on the ticket were premature. "You can't accept an invitation to the prom until the football captain asks you. So I'm not going to go out and buy the outfit just yet," said Huckabee

1 comment:

Bjorn said...

If I were running the McCain Machine, I'd tap Huckabee. He's a nut, but a southern nut, and a much better speaker then McCain. Although, there is the danger of being see together or compared, which constantly makes you look dull, like a Kerry Edwards ticket.

I'd say with Huckabee, Colorado, Florida, and Pennsylvania would be in the bag. I think Obama needs to worry about slipping up, those key states are prone to changing votes wildly based on silly ads or pastor controversies, not to mention fear of Muslims.