Tuesday, May 06, 2008

More arbitrary predictions

Yup people are voting - again. This time it is in Indiana and North Carolina.

My predictions have been going well and I base them on one metric only, what could possibly be the most confounding outcome possible.

So I say Obama takes North Carolina 54%-46%
And Clinton takes Indiana 54%-46%

Of course, nothing changes. Then Hillary wins big in West Virginia next week and again in Kentucky after that (Appalachia is extreemly pro-Clinton) while Obama wins Oregon. Hillary wins Puerto Rico on June 1st and then its all over on June 3d with Obama winning Montana and South Dakota.

Using loose estimates of that tally, Obama needs 95 more super delegates to get the nomination, or 34% of the remaining undeclared pool.

EDIT: Matthew Yglesias has an even more detailed idea:
...clearly the universe is conspiring to make this primary last as long as possible. So what's going to happen is that (of course) Clinton will win Indiana and Obama will win North Carolina. But Clinton will win Indiana by a larger margin than Obama wins North Carolina, and Clinton's supporters will note in somber tones that Obama lost the white vote in NC. At the same time, because NC has substantially more delegates than Indiana, Obama will actually make a small gain in net delegates

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