Wednesday, April 23, 2008

PA Election Results

A little gloating, the final difference in PA looks to be between +9.2-10.0 for Clinton compared to my prediction of +8-9. Not bad! More importantly I was right on the money for it doing nothing but giving the Clinton campaign more reason not to quit yet not giving them any of the resources they need to win.

For the record here is the "Math" everyone is talking about. Assume that Hillary wins every remanning primary dramaticly (there are ten) by a whopping 20 points. She would still be behind 53 delegates -1830 to 1883. Then, her only hope is that the remaining 308 "super delegates" back her a full 64%. Then she hits the magic number of 2025. Of course, she is behind by 18 points in North Carolina polls, so she has some work to do in the next two weeks. 

Frankly, she started campaigning as if her life depended on it too late in the game and now every argument and route to victory is based on a combination of "ifs" and "ands." If Florida and Michigan counted. If the popular vote counted. If Obama implodes. If it were a Republican primary. If she had run harder in the small states. If the super delegates come out strong for Hilary. If you only count large/swing/primary states. If she can raise the money. And if only...

Thanks to CNN's magic delegate counter for all its help.

Update: John Stewart telling it like only he can

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